Info

Road

Figure 24.5 Twelve houses positioned (a) along a road with no cross streets versus (b) on a road with a cross street.

and weight: pedestrians, bicycles, pedicabs, electric-assist bicycles, mopeds, motor scooters, covered motor scooters, three-wheel taxis, golf carts, simple neighborhood electric vehicles, and luxury mini-cars. Walking is essentially free, and non-motorized transport almost free. Mopeds, motor scooters, and simple electric vehicles designed like golf carts are also inexpensive to own and operate: they cost no more than a few thousand Euro (compared with at least 15,000 € for most new FHVs) and have low operating costs. Because these modes are so inexpensive, any household that can use them probably will.

The question of cost, and hence the question of what people might actually purchase and use, becomes interesting when full-featured LLM motor vehicles are considered. Although the LLM network will make cycling and walking much more attractive than they are in any conventional suburb, it is expected that many people will want to make most of their trips in LLMs that have all of the features of conventional FHVs.

So how much will full-feature LLMs cost? To answer this question, the "Advanced Vehicle Cost and Energy use Model" (AVCEM), developed by Delucchi and colleagues at U.C. Davis, was used (Delucchi 2000a; Delucchi and Lipman 2001). This model designs a motor vehicle to meet range and performance requirements specified by the modeler, and then calculates the initial retail cost and total life cycle cost of the designed vehicle.

AVCEM was specified to simulate low-mass, low-speed, full-feature motor vehicles driven over a low-speed urban drive cycle. The assumed and simulated characteristics of a gasoline LLM, a battery-powered electric LLM with a 32-km range (BPEV-20), a battery LLM with a 48-km range (BPEV-30), and a conventional gasoline FHV (a Ford Escort) are shown in Table 24.2. The vehicles have air conditioning, heating, entertainment systems, power steering, and power brakes.

The results of the retail cost and life cycle cost analysis are shown in Table 24.3. AVCEM estimates that in high-volume production, a full-feature gasoline LLM will sell for under 6,000 €, and its BPEV counterpart for only 300-500 € more, depending mainly on the size of the battery (which in turn is determined by the desired driving range). The estimated retail prices given here are consistent with limited data on the retail price of ultra-mini gasoline cars and neighborhood electric vehicles.3

AVCEM estimates that a full-feature LLM will sell for substantially less than a subcompact FHV (Table 24.3) and less than half of the price of a midsize FHV (Delucchi 2000a). The battery-electric LLM has a slightly higher initial cost than does the fossil fuel LLM, but has the same total lifetime cost as the fossil fuel LLM when gasoline costs about 0.4 €/l including taxes. The small extra initial cost is due almost entirely to the initial cost of the battery,

For example, according to a brochure provided by the manufacturer, the ZENN EV (a low-speed, full-featured, neighborhood electric vehicle) is expected to sell for between 7,00010,000 €, at quite limited production volumes.

Table 24.2 Characteristics of full-feature cars in the lifetime cost analysis. Gas FHV = a conventional Ford Escort; Gas LLM = a low-speed, low-mass gasoline vehicle; BPEV-32 = battery-powered electric vehicle with a 32-km range; BPEV-48 = battery-powered electric vehicle with a 48-km range. The BPEVs have lead-acid batteries that store about 35 Wh/kg, weigh about 68 kg, and cost 225-270 €/kWh.

Table 24.2 Characteristics of full-feature cars in the lifetime cost analysis. Gas FHV = a conventional Ford Escort; Gas LLM = a low-speed, low-mass gasoline vehicle; BPEV-32 = battery-powered electric vehicle with a 32-km range; BPEV-48 = battery-powered electric vehicle with a 48-km range. The BPEVs have lead-acid batteries that store about 35 Wh/kg, weigh about 68 kg, and cost 225-270 €/kWh.

Item

Gas FHV

Gas LLM

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