production (mining, beneficiation, and metallurgical processing) is estimated to increase from 95 MJ/kg to 600 MJ/kg assuming current technology. For the two scenarios, 200 and 600 MJ/kg are assumed, as technological progress is likely to improve the energy effi ciency of mining and processing, although mining at greater depths requires more energy. The latter may be partially offset if ore grades are higher in deeper deposits. The energy requirement for secondary production is assumed to be constant at 15 MJ/kg. Energy requirements for exploration are considered insignificant today and are therefore not included in the analysis. These might become critical when exploration focuses on deposits at a greater depth (1-3 km or more). The water required for primary production for the pyrometallurgical production of Cu at ore grades of 0.8% and 0.1% are 75 and 477 l/kg Cu, respectively. For the scenarios, 200 and 500 l/kg are assumed.

Primary and secondary production of Cu are shown in Table 11.2. In scenario H1, primary Cu production is reduced by 40% from its 2006 value. However, if the entire world were to consume Cu at the current U.S. level of consumption along with moderate improvements in recycling (scenario H2), primary production would increase almost sevenfold. Secondary Cu production is estimated to increase substantially. These results highlight the importance of understanding the stock dynamics of in-use products for making demand projections (Müller 2006).

The increasing energy and water requirements for Cu production for the scenarios and associated percentages of 2006 world use and estimated 2050 world use are shown in Table 11.2. In 2006, Cu production represented 0.3% of world energy use. Under the future scenarios, energy required for Cu production would represent 0.2-5% (based on 2050 world energy use). In 2006,

Table 11.2 Primary and secondary copper production and the associated energy and water requirements: 2006 and two hypothetical future scenarios.

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