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this case the basic reproductive rate also gives us the condition for the persistence of the disease.

But the dynamics give us much more, particularly the ability to predict patterns of the transmission of disease. In Figure 5.12, I show a comparison of the predicted dynamics and those observed for three of the four Plasmodium parasites in infants following their birth. Given the simplicity of this model, the agreement is remarkably good. Anderson and May (1991) provide a variety of elaborations.

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