Sir Sirs models

These models can become quite complex, for example when one takes age or stage structure into account (Keeling and Grenfell 1997, Hethcote 2000). But the basic kind of analyses that we conducted underlie more complicated situations. When we add demography, the SIR model also allows for vertical transmission of infection (that is, offspring may be born already infected). In such a case, we would modify the dynamics of infection in Eq. (5.18) to dl/dt — rql + bIS — vI — ml where q is the probability that the offspring of an infected parent is itself infected. The possibility of bioterrorism has made understanding these models and making them applicable even more important (Henderson 1999, Gani and Leach 2001, Meltzer et al. 2001, Enserink 2002, Meltzer 2003, Wynia and Gostin 2002). Some very interesting, and controversial (Enserink 2003), work is that of Edward Kaplan and colleagues (Kaplan et al. 2002, Kaplan and Wein 2003).

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