Stochastic epidemics

We have ignored stochastic effects in our study of the population biology of disease, but they can be important. Indeed, some of the classic papers in stochastic processes (Bailey 1953, Whittle 1955, Bartlett 1957) deal with stochastic epidemics. The book by Bharucha-Reid (1997 (1960)) and papers by Nasell (2002) and Rohani et al. (2002) are good starting points. O'Neill (2002) connects stochastic epidemics to modern Bayesian and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. These will be especially important when we must deal with new or re-emerging diseases for which the population parameters are not known and we simultaneously learn about the disease as we are dealing with it (Brookhart et al. 2002).

Chapter 6

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