S N r N 1 R N S I 738 BV VV

we obtain for the transition rates (compare Eq. (7.35)) of the remaining

Fig. 7.4. For the SIRYX-model we show simulations of 10 runs for two different values of pathogenicity e. In a) and c) e is ten times smaller than in b) and d). The cumulative number of diseased cases X is shown in a) and b). Paradoxically, the cumulative number of diseased cases does not also decrease by a factor of ten, but fluctuates more wildly, sometimes leading to even higher numbers of diseased. The paradox is explained by inspecting the numbers of hosts carrying the potentially harmful bacteria (Y(t)) in c) and d) where it can be seen that the number of carriers differs by a factor ten, due to their smaller disadvantage compared to harmless carriage.

Fig. 7.4. For the SIRYX-model we show simulations of 10 runs for two different values of pathogenicity e. In a) and c) e is ten times smaller than in b) and d). The cumulative number of diseased cases X is shown in a) and b). Paradoxically, the cumulative number of diseased cases does not also decrease by a factor of ten, but fluctuates more wildly, sometimes leading to even higher numbers of diseased. The paradox is explained by inspecting the numbers of hosts carrying the potentially harmful bacteria (Y(t)) in c) and d) where it can be seen that the number of carriers differs by a factor ten, due to their smaller disadvantage compared to harmless carriage.

Was this article helpful?

0 0

Post a comment