Mm

Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep 1994 1995 1996

Month and year a

300 3

300 3

0.75

0.25

0.25

0.75

0.25

Subadult survival

Adult survival

Subadult maturation i Ï

Rain: Dry Dry Medium Wet Wet Density: Low High Low High Low High

200 Observed

mice and the ENSO in Chile

Figure 14.11 (a) Time series data for the multimammate rat (dots) and rainfall (bars) in Tanzania, used to derive a statistical model to predict rat abundance. (The horizontal line indicates the cut-off between 'high' and 'low' densities.) (b) Subsequent time series data used to test that model. (c) Estimates (± SE) from the model for the effects of density and rainfall on population size. (d) The relationship between predicted and observed population sizes in the test data (r2 = 0.49, P < 0.001); the line of equality is also shown. (After Leirs et al., 1997.)

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